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In states like Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia — all influential in the primary — black women under 54 outnumber black men of the same age group. And black women consistently vote for Democrats more than most other demographic groups.
Polls have captured a gradually expanding base for Warren. In the last few months, her support has expanded beyond white, college-educated to women of color, according to the Morning Consult and Quinnipiac polls — though she still trails Sanders among black voters in certain surveys.
Biden's campaign pushed back against reports that they've lowered expectations for Iowa and New Hampshire and rejected the notion that he is is taking any state or voting bloc for granted. It is similar to the strategy Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton followed in and , respectively, to win the nomination.
Biden is leading the field among black voters nationally at 50 percent, and 27 percent among all voters, according to an October Quinnipiac poll. A Fox News poll of South Carolina this month showed Biden with 50 percent support among black voters.
But Warren has slowly gained in surveys of black voters: In the same October Quinnipiac poll, Warren jumped from 10 percent to 18 percent among black voters nationally and took the lead with all Democratic voters and some independents at 30 percent. In South Carolina, Warren is at 8 percent and Sanders at 9, a statistical tie. Nor should they.
In a memo to supporters last month, Warren campaign manager Roger Lau wrote vaguely that the campaign intends to focus on states like Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, and Georgia. He did not mention any of the Super Tuesday states, including ones with large black electorates like Alabama, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Over the past two months, the Warren campaign confirmed hiring state directors in California and Texas, but have been mum on others.
Warren organizers have also mobilized potential supporters in Arkansas in recent weeks. The activity suggests the campaign is making at least modest efforts to organize in the Southern Super Tuesday states. Some of Biden's loyal supporters, like Rep. Emanuel Cleaver D-Mo.